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Kenya Invasion of Somalia Update 10.18.11

21 Aug

al-Shabab War in Somalia Update:

After the disintigration of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) after the U.S.-aided Ethiopian Invasion of 2006, the al-Shabab militia became the leading Islamist military group. In 2007, Shabab publicly aligned itself with al-Qaida, and has waged a bloody guerrilla war against the TFG government forces and the African Union troops (primarily troops from Uganda and Burundi), in Mogadishu and in southern Somalia. Al-Shabab is considered a terrorist group by Australia, Canada, Norway, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States. (see also U.S. Special Forces Attack on al-Qaida in Somalia (September, 2009)

Shabab engaged in a terrorist attack in Uganda in 2010, and in the autumn of 2011, Shabab militants kidnapped several foreigners from Kenyan soil, prompting a Kenyan military intervention in southern Somalia to battle the Shabab fighters. Kenyan government sources claimed that the goal of their invasion was to end the Shabab presence in the southern Somali city of Kismayo.

Witnesses reported seeing 25Kenyan armoured vehicles carrying Kenyan soldiers passing through the Somali town of Dhobley, and there were reports of warplanes bombing two Shabab bases near the border.

According to the BBC, Somali government troops are acting in conjunction with the Kenyan forces ito attack the al-Shabab-controlled areas in southern Somalia. The third day of the Kenyan offensive featured a slowing down of Kenyan forces due to heavy rain and mud in a region with few paved roads.

Map Kenya and Somalia

Map of Kenya and southern Somalia in 2011

https://www.historyguy.com/somalia_conflict_shabab_war.htm

 

Syrian War Page

01 Sep

With President Obama’s controversial decision to ask Congress for approval to attack Syria or not to attack Syria, the middle eastern nation is obviously in the news a lot lately, and likely will remain in the news for some time.  One question that remains is, will Syria now refrain from further chemical weapon attacks, or will Assad be emboldened to continue using chemical weapons on the rebels?

 

The link below is to a page on the Syrian War, which will be updated regularly as events warrant.

 

http://www.historyguy.com/syrian_civil_war.htm

 

Bashar al-Assad

Bashar al-Assad

 

Historyguy Newsletter 06.02.13

02 Jun

The Syrian War Expands

 

Below is the link to the updated on the Wars of Lebanon page.  This page lists the many wars involving Lebanon and now includes information on Hezbollah’s intervention into the Syrian War. Syrian rebels are now attacking Hezbollah inside Lebanon as Hezbollah troops battle inside Syria. http://www.historyguy.com/wars_of_lebanon.htm

 

A related post can be found at the War and Conflict Journal on the topic of how the Syrian War is expanding into a regional conflict.  This was written prior to the Syrian rebels firing rockets into Lebanon and the subsequent ground fighting between Hezbollah and the Syrian rebels.  That article can be found at http://warandconflictjournal.com/2013/05/syrian-conflict-is-now-a-regional-war/

 

Memorial Day Remembrance: One Hundred Years of American Wars

26 May
American Troops Land in Normandy During World War Two

American Troops Land in Normandy During World War Two

Another Memorial Day is upon us.  Today, in May of 2013, we are in the 12th year of the War in Afghanistan, we are ten years gone from the start of the War in Iraq, and now 22 years since the first War with Iraq, (better known as Operation Desert Storm),  and the 100th anniversary of start of World War One is only a year away. 

What does this roll call of wars and years really mean?  Americans like to think of themselves as a peace-loving people who only go to war when necessary.  Generally, that is not an inaccurate statement.  Americans generally speaking, do not want more war.  We are not ancient Sparta with its ingrained militaristic culture.  Nor are we an ancient Athens, with an almost obsessive desire to spread out and establish new colonies everywhere.  But we may be more like ancient Rome.  Suddenly thrust into superpower status, with economic and political ties to many regions far from home, we send our troops and our treasure far and wide.  Often, it is to protect our allies.  Frequently, there is an economic or financial relationship to an intervention.  And, most of America’s conflicts are usually couched in terms of a moral imperative.  Frequently, that moral impetus is also tied to more hard-nosed political, military, diplomatic, and/or economic realities.  All of these reasons, or excuses, if you will, add up to an amazingly large number of wars, conflicts, military interventions, and American casualties over the years.

American Troops in the Afghanistan War

American Troops in the Afghanistan War

An American born in 1913 would be one hundred years old now.  In the span of that person’s life, America has fought quite a few major wars, and has been engaged in numerous smaller wars.  Let’s look at a list of American foreign wars and conflicts since 1913. The wars that are generally considered by historians as “Major Wars,” are in bold.

  1. 1912-1933—U.S. occupation of Nicaragua, including the Sandino War (1927-1934)
  2. 1913—In the Philippines, American territory since the Spanish-American War of 1898, the U.S. Army fights the last battles against the Moros (members of a Filipino Muslim group).
  3. 1914—The U.S. seized, by force, the Mexican port city of Veracruz.
  4. 1915-1934—America militarily occupies Haiti
  5. 1916-1924– America militarily occupies the Dominican Republic
  6. 1917-1922– America militarily occupies Cuba (for the fourth time)
  7. 1916-1917—In response to a raid by the Mexican rebel Pancho Villa, the U.S. Army invaded northern Mexico in an attempt to capture Villa.
  8. 1919-U.S. military intervention in Honduras
  9. 1917-1918-The U.S. declares war on Germany and other members of the Central Powers, entering into World War One.
  10. 1919-1921—The U.S., Britain, France, Japan, and others, send troops to Russia intervene in the Russian Civil War.  U.S. troops finally leave Russia in 1921.
  11. 1924-1925–U.S. military intervention in Honduras
  12. 1927—During one of China’s civil wars, the American destroyers USS Noa and USS Preston, and the British cruiser HMS Emerald, fired shells into the Chinese city of Nanking to clear the streets, then dispersed the attackers with gunfire.
  13. 1937–USS Panay Incident.  During the Sino-Japanese War, the U.S. Navy maintained several river gunboats to protect American interests on the Yangtze River in China. In late 1937, the Japanese advance on Nanking, which served as China’s wartime capital city, caused the American embassy there to evacuate. While conducting the U.S. diplomatic evacuation and while also escorting American Standard Oil barges, one gunboat, the USS Panay, came under attack from Japanese warplanes. After several runs by the Japanese planes, the Panay and two of the oil barges were sunk. The surviving crew and passengers escaped and found shelter with friendly Chinese until they could be picked up by other U.S. ships. Two U.S. sailors and one civilian passenger were killed, while eleven others were wounded.
  14. 1940—American forces were sent to protect British military bases in Newfoundland, Bermuda, St. Lucia, the Bahamas, Jamaica, Antigua, Trinidad, and British Guiana as part of the Lend-Lease program with Britain during World War Two.  The U.S. was still officially neutral in that war.
  15. 1941—In April, American troops occupy Greenland in order to protect it from Germany.
  16. 1941–USS Tutuila Incident –Japanese aircraft bomb USS Tutuila (PR-4) at Chungking, China on July 30, 1941. 
  17. 1941—In July, the U.S. takes over the duty of protecting Iceland, replacing British troops.
  18. 1941–USS Kearny –The destroyer USS Kearny (DD-432) was torpedoed and damaged southwest of Iceland on Oct. 17, 1941 by a German submarine.
  19. 1941–USS Salinas — The oiler USS Salinas (AO-19) is torpedoed by a German submarine 700 miles east of Newfoundland on October 30, 1941. There are no casualties and the ship makes port.
  20. 1941–USS Reuben James – -The German submarine U-552 sinks the USS Reuben James (DD- 245) on Oct. 31, 1941.   The Reuben James was escorting Convoy HX 156, with the loss of 115 lives. This is the first U.S. ship lost to enemy action in the European/Atlantic Theater in World War II.
  21. 1941– In November, American troops occupy Dutch Guiana, with the permission of the Dutch government, in order to protect this colony from Germany.
  22. 1941-1945—Following the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor on December 7, the U.S. officially enters World War Two.
  23. 1945-1949—U.S. military occupation of part of western Germany.
  24. 1945-1955—U.S. military occupation of part of Austria
  25. 1945-1952—U.S. military occupation of Japan
  26. 1945-1949—U.S. military occupation of South Korea
  27. 1945-1991—The Cold War.  U.S. forces are stationed in many parts of the world to contain the power of the Communist Bloc nations led by the Soviet Union and China.
  28. 1945-1949—Over 50,000 U.S. troops are sent to China, initially to aid in the disarmament of Japanese troops following the end of World War Two.  The mission changed to providing aid to the Nationalist Chinese in their war against the Communist Chinese forces of Mao. (part of Cold War)
  29. 1947-1949—U.S. military advisors aid the Greek military in fighting Communist rebels in the Greek Civil War.  The rebels were aided by the Soviet Union, Yugoslavia, and Bulgaria.  (part of Cold War)
  30. 1948-1949—The Berlin Airlift brings supplies to West Berlin, occupied by U.S., British, and French forces.  The airlift is in response to a Soviet Blockade of Berlin designed to force the Allies to abandon Berlin.  The Soviet effort failed. (part of Cold War)
  31. 1950-1953—The Korean War pits U.S. and allied forces against Soviet-backed Chinese and North Korean forces. The fighting ends in 1953, with an armistice, but the war officially never ended. Cross-border violence would periodically erupt along the border. (part of Cold War)
  32. 1955- U.S. military advisors are sent to the new Republic of South Vietnam to aid against the Communist insurgency. (part of Cold War).  This is the beginning of America’s role in the Vietnam War.
  33. 1958—U.S. troops land in Lebanon as an intervention in the first Lebanese Civil War.
  34. 1962— Cuban Missile Crisis.  U.S. blockades Cuba in response to Soviet nuclear missiles based in Cuba.  Nearly sparks World War Three.
  35. 1962—U.S. involvement in the Laotian Civil War begins.  U.S. aids the Laotian government against Communist Pathet Lao rebels and North Vietnamese troops.  This is a part of the larger Vietnam War for the U.S. (part of Cold War)
  36. 1964—U.S. military transport planes fly Belgian troops to the Congo to intervene in the Congolese Civil War.
  37. 1964—The Gulf of Tonkin Incident.  Two U.S. naval ships are attacked by North Vietnamese forces in the waters off of North Vietnam.  The American ships were there as support for a South Vietnamese naval raid on North Vietnam. (part of Cold War)
  38. 1964-1975—U.S. troops officially engage in combat as part of the Vietnam War (part of Cold War).
  39. 1965—U.S. troops intervene in the Dominican Republic to put down a rebellion.
  40. 1966-1969—DMZ War.  An unofficial and little-known extension of the ongoing Korean Conflict.   While the U.S. was distracted by the War in Vietnam, North Korean forces engaged U.S. and South Korean forces in a low-intensity border conflict along the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), separating North and South Korea.
  41. 1968—USS Pueblo Crisis—On January 23,  1968, North Korean forces attacked and captured the U.S. Navy reconnaissance ship, the USS Pueblo.  The crew was held captive by North Korea for eleven months.
  42. 1967–The USS Liberty Incident—during the Six-Day War between Israel and the Arab nations, the USS Liberty was attacked June 8, 1967 by Israeli armed forces, killing 34 and wounding more than 170 U.S. crew members.
  43. 1967– U.S. military transport planes again were dispatched to Congo to aid the government suppress a rebellion.
  44. 1973—U.S. engages in a massive airlift of weapons and ammunition to Israel during the 1973 Arab-Israeli War.  The Soviet Union also engages in a massive airlift in support of Syria and Egypt.  U.S. and Soviet naval forces face off in the Mediterranean Sea.  (part of Cold War)
  45. 1975—The Mayaguez Incident.  Considered the last combat action of the Vietnam conflict by American troops.   U.S. Marines attack a Cambodian island in an attempt to rescue the crew of the American ship Mayaguez, which had been seized by Cambodian Communist forces. (part of Cold War)
  46. 1978—From May to June, American transport aircraft fly Belgian and French troops to Zaire (formerly the Congo), to defeat a rebel invasion of Zaire’s Shaba Province.
  47. 1979-1981—U.S.-Iran Hostage Crisis.  The American embassy was occupied by radical Iranian forces and 52 Americans were held hostage for 444 days.  In 1980, the U.S. attempted a military rescue operation which failed miserably.
  48. 1979-1989—The U.S. provided extensive aid to Afghan rebels fighting the Soviet Invasion and Occupation of Afghanistan.  (part of Cold War)
  49. 1980-1988—The U.S. gave intelligence aid and diplomatic support to Iraq in its war against Iran.
  50. 1981—Salvadoran Civil War.  U.S. military advisors are sent to El Salvador to assist the government forces against Marxist rebels aided by Nicaragua and Cuba. (part of Cold War)
  51. 1981—The First Gulf of Sidra Incident occurs in April, when American warplanes clash with Libyan planes over waters near Libya.
  52. 1982—U.S. Marines are sent to Lebanon in August and September as part of a multi-national force assisting with the evacuation of Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) forces from the besieged city of Beirut.  This was a part of the Israeli Invasion of Lebanon in 1982.
  53. 1982-1984–Only nine days after the Marine withdrawal, they were again sent to Lebanon in greater numbers following the massacre of Palestinian civilians in the Shabra and Shatilla refugee camps.  This deployment will last until 1984 and will climax with the Bombing of the Marine Barracks in Beirut in October, 1983.  While in Lebanon, the Marines battled the Amal Shiite militia, Syrian forces, and the new Hezbollah militia.
  54. 1983—In October, the U.S. invaded the island of Grenada to effect a rescue of American medical students there and to overthrow a pro-Soviet and pro- Cuban Marxist government.
  55. 1986—Second Gulf of Sidra Incident.  American forces again clashed with the Libyan military.
  56. 1986—Operation El Dorado Canyon.  In April, American warplanes and naval forces attacked targets in Libya in retaliation for a terrorist bombing against an American target in Berlin.
  57. 1987—During the ongoing Iran-Iraq War (also called the First Persian Gulf War), the USS Stark was struck on May 17 by two Exocet anti-ship missiles fired from an Iraqi F-1 Mirage during the Iran-Iraq War, killing 37 U.S. Navy sailors.  The U.S. did not retaliate.
  58. 1987-1988—U.S. military intervention in the Iran-Iraq War as U.S. naval forces combatted Iranian forces in the Persian Gulf in Operation Nimble Archer, and Operation Earnest Will. During this conflict, the USS Vincennes shot down civilian Iran Air Flight 655.
  59. 1989—In January, American planes again engaged in combat with Libyan planes over the Gulf of Sidra.
  60. 1989—U.S. Intervention in a coup attempt in the Philippines. Known as Operation Classic Resolve, on December 1, U.S. Air Force fighters from Clark Air Base in Luzon assisted the Aquino government to repel a coup attempt. In addition, 100 marines were sent from U.S. Naval Base Subic Bay to protect the United States Embassy in Manila.
  61. 1989- In December, in the U.S. Invasion of Panama, American forces overthrew dictator Manuel Noriega.
  62. 1991—U.S. and other allied forces deployed to Saudi Arabia in response to the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait.  This is known as Operation Desert Shield.
  63. 1991—In January, U.S. and allied forces liberated Kuwait in what became known as the Gulf War or the First Iraq War.  At the time, it was best known as Operation Desert Storm.
  64. 1991-1996—Operation Provide Comfort, an attempt to protect the Kurdish population of northern Iraq from Saddam Hussein.  This operation in effect resulted in an allied occupation of northern Iraq that enabled the Kurds to establish a semi-autonomous state.
  65. 1991—Allied intervention in Zaire.   On September 25–27, 1991, after widespread looting and rioting broke out in Kinshasa, Zaire, Air Force C-141s transported 100 Belgian troops and equipment into Kinshasa. American planes also carried 300 French troops into the Central African Republic and transported evacuated American citizens.
  66. 1992-2003—The No-Fly Zone War against Iraq.  U.S. and British warplanes enforced a no-fly zone over much of Iraq.  These operations frequently resulted in allied attacks on Iraqi air and ground targets.  In effect, this was a low-intensity continuation of the Gulf War.  As the 2003 invasion of Iraq drew closer, the attacks on Iraqi targets continued in order to soften up Iraqi defenses.
  67. 1992-1995—U.S. and allied intervention in Somalia.  While originating as a humanitarian exercise to help the civilian population, it quickly changed into a nation-building attempt that brought American and other allied forces into combat with Somali militias.  It is believed that the first al-Qaida attacks on American targets took place at this time in Somalia as the Jihadi terrorist organization aided the Somali rebels.  The infamous Blackhawk Down incident occurred during this Somali intervention.
  68. 1993-1995—U.S. and NATO intervention in the Bosnian War.  Intervention began in 1993 with the start of a no-fly zone, with actual U.S. combat involvement starting in 1994 with the shooting down of six Serb aircraft.  In August and September of 1995, U.S. and NATO forces engaged in extensive bombing of Serb ground targets in Bosnia.   This helped lead to the Dayton Peace Accords that ended the war.
  69. 1994-1995—U.S. invasion and occupation of Haiti.  While the occupation was peaceful, this is only because the Haitian government collapsed in the face of an imminent U.S. invasion.
  70. 1998—In Operation Desert Fox, U.S. and British forces engage in a major four-day bombing campaign of Iraq from December 16–19, 1998.  This was in response to an Iraqi attempt to assassinate former President George Bush while on a visit to Kuwait. This is a part of the larger No-Fly Zone War.
  71. 1998–Operation Infinite Reach.  On August 20, President Clinton ordered a cruise missile attack against two suspected al-Qaida terrorist training camps in Afghanistan and a suspected chemical factory in Sudan.  This was in response to the bombing of American embassies in Kenya and Tanzania by al-Qaida a few days earlier.
  72. 1999—Kosovo War. U.S. and NATO forces engage in an air war with Serbia in order to liberate the region of Kosovo from Serbia.
  73. 2000—In October, al-Qaida terrorists attack the naval ship USS Cole in the Yemeni port of Aden.
  74. 2001—Hainan Island Incident–On April 1, 2001, a mid-air collision between a U. S. Navy EP-3E ARIES II signals surveillance aircraft and a People’s Liberation Army Navy J-8II interceptor fighter jet resulted in an international dispute between the United States and the People’s Republic of China.  The crisis was resolved peacefully.
  75. 2001—9/11 Terrorist attacks on the U.S. mark the start of the U.S War on Terror.
  76. 2001-Present—War in Afghanistan.  In response to the al-Qaida attacks on the U.S. on September 11, 2001, American and allied forces invade Afghanistan in October, 2001.  The War in Afghanistan becomes the longest official war in U.S. history. (part of the War on Terror)
  77. 2002-Present—Drone strikes on terrorist (al-Qaida and other Jihadist) targets in Yemen begin.  (part of the War on Terror)
  78. 2002-U.S. Special Forces deploy to the Philippines to assist the Filipino government in their fight against Jihadist (and al-Qaida aligned) Muslim rebels. (part of the War on Terror)
  79. 2003-2011—U.S.-led Invasion and Occupation of IraqThe Iraq War resulted in the overthrow of Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein.  (Considered by the Bush Administration to be part of the War on Terror)
  80. 2004-Present—Drone War in Pakistan.  U.S. drones operating out of Afghanistan launch missile attacks on suspected al-Qaida, Taliban, and other Jihadist targets. (part of the War on Terror)
  81. 2006-Present–U.S. Operations against Jihadist (al-Qaida, Islamic Courts, others) forces in Somalia in conjunction with Ethiopian, Ugandan, Somali government, and other allied forces.  U.S. operations include air strikes, drone strikes, Special Forces raids and assistance to allied forces fighting the Jihadist militias. (part of the War on Terror)
  82.  
  83. 2011—Libyan War.  U.S, NATO, and other allied forces aid rebels fighting to overthrow Libyan dictator Muammar Khadafy.
  84. 2011—On May, 2, 2011, U.S. forces conduct a raid into Pakistan and kill Osama bin Laden.  (part of the War on Terror)
  85. 2011—U. S. Special Forces are deployed to Uganda and Central Africa to aid in the hunt for infamous war criminal Joseph Kony and his band of LRA guerrillas.
  86. 2012—Benghazi Attack.  On September 11, 2012, suspected Jihadist militants attacked the U.S. embassy in Benghazi, Libya, killing  four Americans, including the Ambassador. (part of the War on Terror)
  87. 2013—War in Mali—U.S. transport planes ferry French troops as they engage Jihadist forces in northern Mali.  (part of the War on Terror)
  88. 2013– US Air Force planes supported the French in the Bulo Marer hostage rescue attempt in Somalia. (part of the War on Terror)

Over the span of nearly 100 years, America has been engaged in 88 military conflicts.  This list does not include most cases of U.S. forces, usually Marines, going ashore to protect diplomatic missions and such.  It also does not include most cases of CIA-led coups, clashes, and proxy wars, the current Drone Wars being the exception.  More than likely, the next time Memorial Day rolls around, there will be more military engagements to add to this list, and more fallen American service members to mourn.  Let us hope that their sacrifices are not in vain.

Memorial Day Crosses

Memorial Day Crosses

 

Israeli Airstrikes into Syria 2013

05 May

Israel and Syria have been in an official state of war since 1948.  Since that first Israel-Syria conflict, (and also the first official conflict in the larger Arab-Israeli wars), the two hostile neighbors have engaged in many wars, conflicts, and border clashes.  As the Syrian Civil War (2011-Present), intensifies, Syria’s ally, the Shi’ite Lebanese militia army known as Hezbollah, has also entered the civil war against the rebels.  As conditions inside Syria continue to decay, Israel increasingly is concerned about the transfer of advanced missiles or chemical, biological, or nuclear materials from Syrian control to Hezbollah.  To that end, as of May 5, 2013, Israel has conducted three airstrikes against Syrian targets.  Below is a listing of those airstrikes into Syria.

 

January 30, 2013Israel launched air strikes into Syrian territory. Among the targets were a convoy believed to be transferring arms from Syria to Hezbollah, and Scientific Studies and Research Center in Jamarya northwest of Damascus, which was believed to be a biological weapons research center. The Israeli planes entered Syrian airspace near Mt. Hermon, flying in low at dawn to avoid radar detection.
May 3, 2013Israel launched air strike into Syria from Lebanese airspace, using the Israeli Air Force’s “stand off” bombs, capable of covering large distances, enabling Israel to take out a target inside Syira without actually entering Syrian territory. The target was believed to be a shipment of advanced missiles on its way into Lebanon for Hezbollah. The Lebanese Shi’ite militia is an active participant in the Syrian Civil War on the side of Assad regime.

Fateh-110 Conqueror Missile

Fateh-110 Conqueror Missile

May 5, 2013Israel launched the second air strike in three days on the night of Sunday, May 5, 2013. The target was apparently a shipment of Fateh-110 missiles, which are Iranian-produced missiles with precise guidance systems and aiming ability superior to anything Hezbollah currently has its arsenal. The air strike occurred in Damascus, causing multiple explosions.

 

General Petraeus and His Place in History

10 Nov

General David Petraeus, perhaps America’s best-known, and most respected military leader since Colin Powell and Norman Schwarzkopf, has resigned his post as Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), as the result of an extra-marital affair.  Petraeus gained intense fame and respect for leading American forces in both Iraq and Afghanistan, serving under both Presidents Bush and Obama.

The affair apparently with Paula Broadwell, the woman who wrote a glowing biography of the general, came to light during a background investigation by the FBI.  While such a revelation is not always an automatic career-killer in civilian life, or even in politics, for both the military and the intelligence services, it is considered a serious security breach.  News reports have General Petraeus tendering his resignation to President Obama on Thursday (two days after the presidential election), and Obama accepting the resignation on Friday, November 09, 2012.

In the post-9/11 wars, General David Petraeus’ career in a way served as a roadmap to those wars against Islamic Jihadists (i.e. the Taliban, al-Qaida, Somalia’s Shabab, among others), as well as the wars against Saddam, Gaddafi, and the proxy wars against Assad and Iran.  He commanded the 101st Airborne Division in the 2003 invasion of Iraq.  From 2007 to 2008, Petraeus commanded all U.S. forces in Iraq, and implemented the controversial, but ultimately successful “surge” of troops into insurgent-infested areas of Iraq, usually in urban areas.  Following his Iraq command, Petraeus was promoted to command the U.S. Central Command (USCENTCOM), headquartered in Tampa, Florida.  In this position, Petraeus oversaw all American operations in the Middle East from Egypt to Pakistan.

General Petraeus and Paula Broadwell

General Petraeus and Paula Broadwell

In the summer of 2010, following the resignation of General Stanley McChrystal as commander of forces in Afghanistan, President Obama assigned Petraeus to take over the war in Afghanistan.

David Petraeus retired from the military on August 31, 2011, having reached the highest working rank in the U.S. Army, that of a four-star general.  Following his retirement, the President appointed Petraeus as the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency.  He held this important position in the so-called War on Terror until he offered to resign due to an extra-marital affair.  His resignation was accepted by President Obama on November  9, 2012.

As a result of his various commands and the influence he had on U.S. military and intelligence policy during these post-9/11 wars, General David Petraeus holds a unique place in recent American history.  If he ever writes a book of his wartime work, it will likely be a very informative tome that could shed light on many aspects on the American way of war  in the 21st Century.

 

Is the World On the Brink of Major War?

20 Aug

What on earth is the world coming to?  We now live in a time of war, and rumors of war, and the rumors just keep coming!  A recent article in the magazine Foreign Policy actually postulates what may occur if China and Japan were to fight a naval war over the disputed Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands.  Back when we lived through the Cold War, in a bipolar world, (that means that there were two main superpowers in the world), and most conflicts in the world revolved around the Soviet-American rivalry, the basic calculus was simple:  The two superpowers would keep their allies and satellites in check, and, barring some extraordinarily crazy sparking event, the chances of an actual war between the superpowers would likely not happen due to the threat of mutually assured nuclear destruction.  That also meant that if America’s ally Israel got the upper hand over Soviet-allied Egypt and Syria in the latest Middle Eastern War, the Americans would rein in the Israelis before they could march on Cairo or Damascus and trigger possible Soviet intervention.  Similarly, it was fairly certain that the Soviets would convince Syria to not use its stockpile of chemical weapons on Israel for similar fear of an American intervention.  In many ways, the Cold War rivalry between the U.S. and the Soviet Union kept a lid on many possible conflicts that could have sparked a bigger war.

Well, the Soviet Union is gone now, and we are faced with a multi-polar world.  Make no mistake, the U.S. is still the only legitimate superpower around.  The U.S. can project power literally anywhere in the world with a high degree of certainty of tactical victory.  For example, on a month’s notice in 2001, American and allied forces launched an invasion/liberation of Afghanistan (literally on the other side of the planet from the U.S.), following the 9/11 terrorist attacks.  But other, regional powers are flexing their muscles and making threatening noises, and this will continue to be a reality as those regional powers (such as China, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Israel, Japan, Russia, India, and others), come into conflict with their neighbors.  Notice that several of the nations named above are neighbors with each other, or at least inhabit the same neighborhood.

In August of 2012, a look at the current wars, border conflicts, and potential international problems that are currently being discussed, and reported on in the news:

Israel is openly debating whether or not to attack Iran.  The Iranians, for their part, continue to develop their controversial nuclear program, while simultaneously we hear their leaders call for the destruction of Israel.

–The United States continues to place increased military forces in the regions surrounding Iran, just in case there is an Israeli-Iranian War.  If such a war breaks out, the U.S. will almost certainly be drawn in.

–The ongoing Syrian Civil War is getting bloodier, and the Assad regime may be getting more desperate.  Speculation has arisen over the possibility of Assad using his stockpile of chemical weapons on either the rebels or on the nations that support them, namely Turkey and Jordan.  Of course, Assad could also just use them on Israel, hoping to gain traction with his own people or with other Arab nations.  All of the above-named anti-Assad nations are friends of the U.S., which has made no bones about intervening if Assad were to use his weapons of mass destruction.

Israel is openly preparing for a possible intervention of their own in Syria if they believe that Assad is going to transfer his chemical weapons to his Hezbollah allies in Lebanon.

Egypt is engaged in a low-level but growing battle to re-assert authority in the Sinai, where Islamic militants are launching more frequent and more deadly attacks on Egyptian, Israeli, and American forces. (The Americans are in the Sinai as part of the Multinational Force & Observers, which has helped keep the peace between Egypt and Israel since the Camp David Accords).

-China, Vietnam, the Philippines, and other Southeast Asian nations are engaged in name-calling and posturing over the contested Spratly Islands.  China has increasingly asserted authority on the islands, even to the point of setting up a small city on one of them.  The military forces of several nations are in the area.  The main reason for this conflict is the belief that the area is rich in oil and natural gas. The United States is a close ally of the Philippines, and is increasingly establishing strong military and diplomatic ties with Vietnam, and any military conflict over these islands would almost certainly the U.S. against the Chinese.

–Similarly, China and Japan are currently engaged in serious name-calling and worse over their contested islands, which the Chinese call the Diaoyu Islands, and the Japanese call the Senkaku Islands.  Some respected publications like Foreign Policy are posting articles speculating on the outcome of a possible Sino-Japanese Naval war in 2012.  Of course, the United States is a close ally of Japan, and any military conflict would almost certainly bring the U.S. on the Japanese side.

–American military forces are still heavily engaged against Taliban forces in Afghanistan, while other U.S. assets continue to deploy against al-Qaida and other Islamist forces throughout the world.

–In Yemen, American trainers continue to aid the Yemeni government while occasional U.S. drone attacks take out al-Qaida operatives.  Several terrorist attacks against American targets have originated out of Yemen in recent years.

— U.S. drone attacks against al-Qaida and other Islamist targets in Pakistan continue unabated.  One estimate places the number of dead from these attacks since 2004 at over 3,000.

–U.S.-funded allies, actively aided by American air and naval forces (and of course, more drone attacks), provide the military muscle in the Somali government’s war against the Islamist and al-Qaida allied Shabab rebels.  These allies include Uganda, Kenya, Burundi, and Ethiopia.

–Following the successful campaign by NATO and other allied nations (Qatar among them), to aid rebels in overthrowing Muammar Gadhafi’s tyrannical regime, several thousand Taureg mercenaries previously employed by Gadhafi went home to northern Mali (with the nice weapons Gadhafi gave them), and commenced to defeat the Malian army and establish a de facto Taureg homeland in northern Mali.  These Taureg (that is the name of their ethnic group) have been infiltrated by the North African branch of al-Qaida and other Islamist groups.  Several other West African nations are contemplating sending a military force to Mali to defeat them.  The United States and other Western nations would likely end up supporting such an intervention with funds, material, and possibly troops.  Oh, and probably drones, as well.

There are a few more international issues that are on the back burner as well, but this list gives a pretty good idea of the precarious situation the world is in right now.  And that is not even mentioning the perpetual worries over Korea!  And, as the Democratic and Republican parties in the United States prepare for their presidential nominating conventions, not a single one of these issues is a major item of discussion for the two presidential candidates.  In fact, a quick look at major news stories in America during the middle of August show a fascination with GOP Vice-Presidential candidate Paul Ryan’s fitness regimen and his six-pack abs.  The major political story on August 20 involves a Republican Senate candidate’s idiotic remarks about rape and conception.  Hardly any mention was made in the news about the recent coalition deaths in Afghanistan, and certainly no debate over the ongoing war there. 

The world is a deadlier place in 2012 than it seemed in 1992, just after the end of the Cold War.  We are on the brink of not just one possible regional war, but several, all with calamitous effects on the world economy, and on world security.

 

 

 

Mitt Romney Chooses Economic Conservative Paul Ryan as his Running Mate

11 Aug

Paul Ryan, Congressman from Wisconsin, is the latest GOP running mate who is probably an unknown to the majority of the Amerian voting populace.  To policy wonks, Tea Party faithful, and those who follow conservative economic politics, Ryan is well-known and, if you are an economic conservative, quite popular.  However, to the majority of Americans, who right now are probably more attuned to the Olympics, summer camping, and the new NFL season, news of Paul Ryan’s pick is more likely akin to prior news of Sarah Palin or Dan Quayle as running mates.  In other words, a big “Who is that?”

Paul Ryan and his Family (note the Green Bay Packers sweatshirt!)

Paul Ryan and his Family (note the Green Bay Packers sweatshirt!)

So, who IS Paul RyanPaul Ryan is a young (born in 1970) handsome family man (one wife, three kids), who lives in a town where his parents and grandparents are all buried (Janesville, Wisconsin), and he is an avid Green Bay Packers fan. Paul Ryan is also Catholic, which may be a helpful aspect for the Morman Romney.   In Paul Ryan’s Political Career, he has risen quickly through the ranks of the GOP through his work on the budget and his “Roadmap to Prosperity,” an economic blueprint that bears the intellectual handprint of the dean of Conservative economists, Milton Friedman.

In the days and weeks leading up to Mitt Romney’s VP announcement, speculation arose around such Republican luminaries as Condoleeza Rice and Marco Rubio, among others.  Either of those two would have provided Romney with an instant inroad to traditionally Democratic constituencies (African-Americans and Hispanics), but instead he chose a white midwesterner with no foreign policy exprience.  If the world experiences a major crisis in the weeks leading up to the American presidential election, the choice of a domestic economic expert rather than someone experienced in foreign policy, could come back to bite Romney.  It is quite likely that the war in Syria could easily get worse and engulf the U.S. into some sort of military intervention, and/or, an Israeli attack on Iran (which this writer thinks is very likely to occur before the U.S. elections), could highlight the lack of foreign policy experience on the Romney-Paul ticket.

One thing is for certain:  The U.S. Presidential election will be interesting.

 

A Modern Game of Thrones in North Korea

05 Aug
North Korean Dictator Kim Jong Un and his wife, Ri Sol Ju

North Korean Dictator Kim Jong Un and his wife, Ri Sol Ju

Among modern tyrannical dictators, there is a strong tendency toward attempting to establish a “Game of Thrones” type of generational legitimacy.  Anyone familiar with the popular fantasy books and HBO TV show knows that the Kings and other Lords in the fictional land of Westeros work and fight very hard to place their children on the thrones of their respective kingdoms and fiefdoms.  Usually this involves much death, intrigue, war, and general misery for the common people, most of whom could care less about the “Game of Thrones” played by their rulers.  In the real world of international politics, one needs only look a bit at history and current events to see interesting patterns developing in the attempts of dictators to pass on their rule to their progeny, especially in North Korea.

It was recently reported that Kim Jong-Un, North Korea’s third leader of the Kim Dynasty, has taken a wife.  This actually should be considered good news for those worried about renewed war on the Korean Peninsula.  Kim Jong-Un’s new wife, named Ri Sol-Ju, is reported to be ‘pretty and charming’ by an insider with knowledge of the Kim family.  Most likely, within the next year or two, word will come out of North Korea that Ri Sol-Ju is expecting a child with her husband, the Supreme Leader.  Such a pregnancy and, presumably a live birth of a son, will continue the Kim Dynasty for another generation.  Assuming North Korea as a nation survives.  One thing about North Korea and the politics of the Stalinist hermit kingdom, is that no one on outside of North Korea really knows if there will be another Korean War.  Every time a leadership change occurs in the North, or in the time leading up to such a change, tensions mount as the North makes militaristic and belligerent noises and actions.  In 2010, as Kim Jong-Un’s father weakened, the North attacked a South Korean island.  It is now known that Kim Jong-Un was on the island with his father just prior to that attack, and that this may have been a demonstration of his ability to command.

While few outside of North Korea would see the continuation of this dynasty of dictators as a positive, all would likely agree that a new Korean War would be in no one’s best interests.  The marriage of Kim Jong-Un assures that he will attempt to pass on his power and rule to his future children.  This means that he will (hopefully), not engage in any reckless actions that may spark a war that any reasonable person with knowledge of military affairs could surmise would end with North Korea’s end.  Of course, no one outside of North Korea really knows if Kim Jong-Un himself is really aware that North Korea’s conventional military forces cannot truly compete with the South Korean and American military might that any North Korean attack would face.  Any reasonable observer would have guessed that Saddam Hussein, who also groomed his sons to succeed him, would have avoided any reckless military adventures that could undo his family’s rule of Iraq.  As we all know, Saddam and all of his sons are now dead, and his county is now ruled by people that Saddam would have loved to kill.

Other modern dictators attempted to pass on their rule to a second generation.  Libya’s late and largely unlamented tyrant, Muammar Gaddafi, intended to pass on power to his sons.  A bloody civil war later, and we see that they are all now dead or imprisoned.  Egypt’s strongman Hosni Mubarak, while not as dictatorial as the Kims or Gadaffis, nonetheless intended to pass on power to his eldest son.  The Egyptian Revolution changed that, and Egypt is now holding democratic elections. And in Syria, where the Assad Dynasty is currently in its second generation, a bloody civil war has Bashar Assad on the edge of following the footsteps of Saddam, Gaddafi, and Mubarak.  No one expects North Korea’s people to suddenly rise up and kick out the Kims.  The dynamic is much different and the grip the North Korean communists have on their rule is much too tight.  But in this modern Game of Thrones, some kings live, and some kings die.  But one thing remains steady:  If there is a man on the figurative throne of a dictatorship, if  that ruler can pass on his power to his sons, he will do so.

Prince Joffrey on his Throne in Game of Thrones: Would he fit in as a modern dictator?

Prince Joffrey on his Throne in Game of Thrones: Would he fit in as a modern dictator?

 

Does Terror Attack in Bulgaria Give Israel Cause for War With Iran?

18 Jul
Israeli Tourist Bus Bombed in Bulgaria

Israeli Tourist Bus Bombed in Bulgaria

Several Israeli tourists died in a terrorist attack on a tourist bus in Bulgaria that Israeli authorities say lead back to an Iranian plot to kill Israeli citizens.  At least six Israeli tourists died in the explosion, at least 30 other civilians sustained wounds.  The bus, which was leaving the airport at Burgas with 154 passengers, most of them Israelis, was headed for a resort popular with Israeli vacationers.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu placed the blame for the attack squarely on Iran, citing other recent attempted terror attacks that he also blamed on Iran.   

“In the past months we saw Iranian attempts to attack Israelis in Thailand, India, Kenya and Cyprus,” Netanyahu said, added, “This is an Iranian terror offensive that is spreading throughout the world.”  Netanyahu also added that Israel would respond with force. 

Recent tensions between Israel, Iran, and the United States, have caused much speculation as to whether an attack on Iran, which is developing a nuclear program, will occur soon.  Iran has blamed Israel for assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists and for cyber-attacks on nuclear facilities.  Iran and Israel have a very harsh history of hostile relations, with Iran conducting terror attacks on Israelis in the past, arming Israeli enemies such as Hezbollah and Hamas, and for supporting the Assad regime in SyriaIsrael claims that Iran’s nascent nuclear program’s end goal is to develop nuclear weapons that would be used on Israel

Given all this recent tension, why would Iran strike at Israeli targets now?  One theory is that a war with Israel would detract pro-democracy activists in Iran and strengthen the current regime.  Another theory is that the United States and other Western allies would be able to convince Israel to not attack now.  Or, this is a ploy by factions within Iran (i.e. the Revolutionary Guards) to discredit other factions of the regime. 

Whatever the reasons for the Iranian attack, it is clear that if Israel truly wanted a Cassus Belli (a cause for war), they now have it.