Nuclear War is Bad for the
Environment…
…and for humans, dogs, cats,
cows, and just about everything else. Though it could end up solving global warming, at least for a
while. Seriously though, several recent
news stories point out the increasing dangers associated with the nearly
unchecked proliferation of nuclear weapons in an increasingly unstable
world.
What exactly are the possible
scenarios for small-scale regional nuclear conflicts? Those are exactly the type of wars that the
scientists at the American Geophysical Union’s annual
meeting in
San Francisco
warned about.
Even a
Small Nuclear War Could Change the World: New Study Shows Distant and Minor
Nuclear Blasts Could Cause a Global ‘Nuclear Winter’—ABC News Dec. 12, 2006
Megacities, global warming
make nuclear war even more dangerous—By Michael
Kanellos
Staff Writer, CNET News.com, Dec. 11, 2006
The War and
Conflict Journal sees several realistic scenarios that could occur within the
next few years.
Scenario 1: Nuclear
rolls the dice and makes a go at taking over
South Korea
. The President of South Korea does not appear
too worried though. He says that despite
the North’s nuclear weaponry, the South would still prevail. Is the man a fool, or has
South Korea
have a nuclear ace up its sleeve?
Roh says nuclear North
Korea no match in warfare to the South
Scenario 2:
Iran
and
duke it out with nukes. Iran’s President is famous for periodically
threatening to wipe Israel off of the map, but Israel’s Prime Minister recently
all but admitted that Israel has nuclear weapons (a well-known fact, but Israel
consistently has not admitted such). These two nations could easily wipe out the entire Middle East and its
oil supplies (once
Iran
creates those weapons).
ISRAEL NUKE
COMMENT SPARKS CONTROVERSY
History Guy: Israel-Lebanon/Hezbollah War (2006)
Scenario 3: The
U.S.
(with or
without allies), tries to take out
Iran
’s nuclear processing
facilities. To take out the hardened
underground sites, the
U.S.
may resort to “mini-nukes,” or nuclear “bunker-busting” weapons. Messy.
Attack
on Iran: Pre-emptive Nuclear War
History Guy: Iran-U.S. Hostage Crisis (1979-1981)
Scenario 4:
India
and
Pakistan
, who each possess at least
50 nuclear weapons, fight another war and go nuclear. The two old enemies have been talking peace
lately, but with an active Islamist insurgency in Indian-ruled
Kashmir
, and very important elements of the Pakistani
military and security forces backing the insurgency, the possibility of a
future war that could go nuclear is ever present.
India’s
Strategic Environment and the Role of Military Power—Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace, August 22, 2006
History Guy:
Indo-Pakistani Wars
Scenario 4.1: A coup topples
President Mushareff of
Pakistan
and the new government is openly pro-Taliban, pro-al-Qaida, and calls for holy
war to free Kashmir from
India
. The
U.S.
,
Britain
, and
India
decide to take out
Pakistan
’s
nuclear capability.
U.S.
and British
special forces try to seize the Pakistani nuclear arsenal, but miss a few,
while the Indian military surges across the border to end the “Pakistani
problem” once and for all. Use your
imagination on how a pro-Taliban Pakistani government would react to such an
attack… NOTE: There supposedly WAS such an Anglo-American plan to seize
Pakistan
’s
nukes right after 9/11 when it was not clear which way Mushareff would go when
told to choose between continuing his support of the Taliban and aligning with the
West.
U.S.
Worries about Pakistan Nuclear Arms—
Washington
Post, Nov. 4, 2001
Bombing Pakistan Back
to the Stone Age by Eric
Margolis
Scenario 4.2:
India
and
re-fight their 1962 border war, except this time they both have nukes. Even though they have been talking nicely to
each other lately,
India
has
made no secret of its concern that
’s
recent military expansion is up to three times a large as publicly acknowledged
by
Beijing
.
Other scenarios
exist of course, but in terms of the most likely wars between nations, these
are the most likely. And you thought the
end of the Cold War made the world a safer place, didn’t you?