By Roger Lee, The History Guy

New Year’s Day, 2012, opened with Iran’s announcement that Iranian nuclear scientists had produced Iran’s first nuclear fuel rod and that the Iranian navy had test-fired a new medium-range surface-to-air missile.  All this while Iran conducted war games in the Strait of Hormuz designed to test its ability to close those straits to international oil shipping.  All this while the U.S. and the other Western powers continue to declare that they will not allow a disruption to the oil shipping, and Israel watches nervously and prepares for war. 

Iranian war games in the Strait of Hormuz

As the world seems to quickly slide toward war, n look back at events 200 and 100 years ago seems in order.  2012 marks the bicentennial of the War of 1812, in which the U.S. took on the much more powerful British Empire and managed to survive to talk about it.  In 1912, the world was on the brink of a devastating World War, which was still two and a half years away, but events in 1912 set the stage for a war that everyone thought would be quick and sharp, but proved to be out of everyone’s control as soon as it began.

In 1812, the world was in the throes of an earlier version of world war, with Britain, Russia, Spain, and other nations in a death-match with Napoleon’s French-dominated empire.  The United States did not have a dog in that fight, so to speak, but had long-standing problems with the British.  Ever since the American Revolution, the Americans felt that Britain did not respect the U.S. as a true sovereign nation.  British agents aided the Native Americans who resisted American encroachment along the frontier, and British ships regularly disrespected American shipping on the high seas, leading to violent naval confrontations and the forcible boarding of U.S. ships to “impress,” or illegally (in the U.S. view) draft  sailors into the British navy. The United States basically felt they had to put up or shut up in terms of their problems with Britain.  Also, some expansionist elements in the government and elsewhere eyed the prospect of invading and “liberating” Canada from the British. 

Thus, a somewhat naïve and woefully unprepared America declared war on the most powerful nation on earth and commenced to invade British Canada.  Long story short, the U.S. got it’s rear-end kicked out of Canada and throughout most of the eastern seaboard by the British.  Not until the Battle of New Orleans in 1815, could the U.S. claim any meaningful victory on land.

How does this situation relate to the current tension with Iran?  In this case, in 2012, the smaller nation feeling no respect is Iran, and the most powerful nation in the world is obviously the U.S.  Some analysts, and some Iranian spokesmen themselves, say that if Iran is pushed around too much (sanctions, U.S. drone flights, covert warfare, assassinations, etc.), it may retaliate by closing the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping, which would be a cassus belli for the Western Powers.  Of course, the fact that Iran is clearly pursuing nuclear weapons makes Israel and the West quite nervous, and if Israel truly believes that Iran is close to getting The Bomb, then war is likely inevitable.  One thing about the War of 1812 that applies to this situation is that when the U.S. chose war with Britain (and with Canada), the assumption was that the war would be quick, and that Britain was too distracted by its other wars to put much effort into another war.  Iran may be thinking the same thing, to everyone’s detriment. 

The situation in 1912 was a bit different. The former major power in the eastern Mediterranean region, the Ottoman Empire (also known as Turkey), was fading fast, and the vultures were beginning to gather to pick at the soon to be expired Ottoman carcass.  Italy attacked Ottoman Libya in 1911, and in October, 1912, the Ottomans sued for peace and gave up their last piece of territory in North Africa.  The day following the conclusion of the Italian-Ottoman War, the Balkan alliance of Serbia, Greece, Montenegro, and Bulgaria launched an attack on the Ottoman possessions in Europe.  The Ottomans lost that war, but that First Balkan War, and a Second Balkan War that broke out right after the first one, helped set the stage for World War One, which erupted in the summer of 1914.  In the wars of 1912, we see several smaller nations take on the ancient bogeyman from their past; no longer strong, but feeble and weak.  And the little guys won.  In the modern era, the little guys can be seen as Saddam’s Iraq, Khaddafy’s Libya, Assad’s Syria,  Iran, and North Korea.  They all have a bad history with the Western powers.  They all, at one point or another, had challenged the West, and survived those initial conflicts.  But they took that feeling of victory and invulnerability too far, challenged the West one too many times, or refused to bow down when faced with invasion and war.  Saddam is now dead. Khaddafy is dead.  Assad is under siege, and North Korea is still the great unknown.  Iran is the linchpin.  If they truly see themselves as the relatively small but tough challenger to U.S, and Western influence in the Muslim world, then they may push the envelope enough to cause a military response from either Israel or the U.S.

Unintended Consequences of War: The British Burn Washington

In the 1912 analogy, the smaller nations were victorious initially, but when the big dogs got into the fight beginning in 1914, Serbia, and Montenegro were almost destroyed.  Bulgaria lost even more land.  The war did not go as any of them anticipated, which is usually the way of war.  The same held true in the War of 1812.  The U.S. expected a fairly easy war against the British in Canada, and instead, the Americans saw their own nation invaded and Washington, D.C burned down by the invaders.  In both examples from 100 and 200 years ago, the little guys faced down against the big guys, and once war started, it went in directions no one wanted or anticipated.   If a war with Iran is in store for 2012, the decision-makers on all sides need to keep that historical fact in mind before it is too late.

After Eight years and 270 days, the American War in Iraq is now officially over.  Defense Secretary Leon Panetta presided over a ceremony in Baghdad on December 15, 2011.  In reality, this war truly began when the U.S. intervened in what is now known as the First Iraq War (1990-1991), and then continued with the ongoing No-Fly Zone War (1991-2003) against Saddam’s Iraq. 

See also: http://www.historyguy.com/GulfWar2.html

http://www.historyguy.com/no-fly_zone_war.html

http://www.historyguy.com/GulfWar.html

NEW Political Unrest in Egypt 2011 Timeline NEW

 Anglo-Egyptian Wars: Wars Between Britain and Egypt

http://www.historyguy.com/anglo-egyptian_wars.htm

 Anglo-Egyptian War (1807)– Seeking to replace Muhammed Ali with a puppet ruler favorable to British interests, Britain invaded with nearly 5,000 troops on March 17, 1807. British forces led by General A. Mackenzie Fraser seized the city of Alexandria. British forces suffered several military defeats before retreating and evacuating Egypt on September 14, 1807.

Greek War of Independence (1821-1832)– Egypt’s part in the war came about when the Ottoman Turks requested Egyptian aid in fighting the rebellious Greeks. The Pasha of Egypt, Muhammad Ali, sent his son Ibrahim to Greece with a powerful Egyptian army. The British, French, and Russians intervened to save the Greeks, defeating a combined Turko-Egyptian fleet at the Battle of Navarino in 1827. French troops expelled the Egyptian land forces. The Egyptian portion of the war lasted from 1825-1832. This war led directly to the First Turko-Egyptian War. (see below) See also: Greco-Turkish Wars

Urabi Revolt/British Conquest of Egypt (1881-1882)– Muslim rebels opposed to Turkish, Western, and Christian influence in Egypt (Britain and France had gained a large degree of control due to the Suez Canal project), rebelled on February 1, 1881 in Alexandria. On July 11, 1882, in response to a massacre of Christians in Alexandria, the British fleet bombarded Alexandria, followed up by the landing of 25,000 troops at Ismailia. In the Battle of Tel al-Kebir, the British defeated Urabi’s army. From this point on, Britain retained an army in the countryand effectively controlled Egypt, which remained technically an Ottoman (yet recognized as independent in all but name), vassal.

Anglo-Egyptian War of 1951-1952 (1951-1952)–Egyptian guerrillas, aided by the governement of Egypt, carried out a campaign against British forces stationed at the Suez Canal and against other British and Western symbols and targets. On January 25, 1952, British troops retaliated against Egypt by attacking an Egyptian police station, killing 50 and wounding 100. The conflict ended with a change in the Egyptian government and the eventual withdrawal of British troops. This conflict led to Britain’s involvment in the 1956 Anglo-French-Israeli invasion of Egypt in 1956. (see below)

Suez/Sinai War (1956)– Since the end of the First War with Israel, Egypt encouraged Palestinian raids against the Israelis from Gaza and Sinai. Israel made plans with Britain and France to attack Egypt. On October 29, 1956, Israeli troops invaded Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula and quickly overcame opposition as they raced for Suez. The next day, Britain and France, following suit, in response to Egypt’s nationalization of the Suez Canal, and on October 31, Egypt was attacked and invaded by the military forces of Britain and France. President Eisenhower of the United States pressured Britain, France and Israel into agreeing to a cease-fire and eventual withdrawal from Egypt. Militarily, Egypt was defeated by teh invading allies, but Nasser claimed a political and moral victory as British, French, and Israeli forces were forced to leave Egypt by the Great Powers.

Sources:1. Kohn, George C. Dictionary of Wars. New York: Facts On File Publications. 1999.

2. Dupuy, R. Ernest and Trevor N. Dupey. The Harper Encyclopedia of Military History: From 3500 B.C. to the Present New York, New York: Harper & Row. 1993.

 http://www.historyguy.com/egypt-israel_wars.htm

Arab-Israeli War of 1948 (1948-1949)–The First Arab-Israeli War, in which Egypt acquired the Gaza Strip. Egypt joined with several other Arab nations in an invasion of Israel in May, 1948 in support of Palestinian Arabs fighting against the newborn Israeli state. See Arab-Israeli Wars

Egyptian Seizure of the Israeli ship Bat Galim (Summer, 1954)—Egypt seized the Israeli ship Bat Galim as it attempted to enter the Suez Canal.  According to various international agreements, the Suez Canal is supposed to be accessible to ships of all nations.  This provoked worsening tensions between Israel and Egypt.

Israeli Raid on Gaza (Feb. 28, 1955)—Israeli forces conducted a raid, a response to repeated guerrilla attacks and the seizure of an Israeli ship by Egypt, which resulted in the deaths of 51 Egyptian soldiers and 8 Israeli troops.  This raid was the largest of its kind against Arab forces since the end of the First Arab-Israeli War in 1949.–See Arab-Israeli Border Wars

Suez/Sinai War (1956)– Since the end of the First War with Israel, Egypt encouraged Palestinian raids against the Israelis from Gaza and Sinai. Israel made plans with Britain and France to attack Egypt. On October 29, 1956, Israeli troops invaded Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula and quickly overcame opposition as they raced for Suez. The next day, Britain and France, following suit, in response to Egypt’s nationalization of the Suez Canal, and on October 31, Egypt was attacked and invaded by the military forces of Britain and France. President Eisenhower of the United States pressured Britain, France and Israel into agreeing to a cease-fire and eventual withdrawal from Egypt. Militarily, Egypt was defeated by teh invading allies, but Nasser claimed a political and moral victory as British, French, and Israeli forces were forced to leave Egypt by the Great Powers.

Arab-Israeli War of 1967 (1967)– As the underlying tensions between the Arab nations and Israel remained unchanged since the First Arab-Israeli War of 1948-1949, the outbreak of a third major war was expected. The introduction of the American-Soviet competition and arms sales in the region only accelerated the likelihood of a Middle Eastern war evolving into a Cold War confrontation. the immediate cause of war in 1967 came out of Egypt’s decision to expel United Nations (UN) troops from the Sinai peninsula and blockade Israel’s port of Eilat. The UN forces were intended to form a buffer between the border separating Israel and Egypt, and their expulsion led the Israeli government to fear an imminent attack by Egypt. Fearing an attack by the Arab states, Israel launched a pre-emptive attack on Egypt, Jordan, and Syria. In this lighting war, Israel siezed the Gaza Strip and Sinai from Egypt, the West Bank and Jerusalem from Jordan, and the Golan Heights from Syria. See Arab-Israeli Wars

The War of Attrition (1968-1970)–After the shockingly quick defeat of the Arab nations by Israel in the 1967 Six-Day War, Egypt (supported by the Soviet Union), engaged in a low-level war of attrition with Israel along the Suez Canal and in the Sinai region. See Arab-Israeli Wars

Arab-Israeli War of 1973 (1973)–Also known as the Yom Kippur War by Israel, as the Ramadan War by the Arab nations, or simply, as the October War. In October, 1973, Egypt and Syria launched a surprise attack on Israeli forces occupying the Egyptian Sinai, and Syrian Golan. The Arab nations failed to defeat Israel, but this war set the stage for peace negotiations between Egypt and Israel. See Arab-Israeli Wars

Egypt and Israel signed a peace treaty in 1979. Egypt was the first Arab nation to make peace with Israel.. In 1982, per the peace treaty, Israel completed its withdrawal from the Sinai Peninsula, and the Sinai once again came under Egyptian control.

Sources:1. Kohn, George C. Dictionary of Wars. New York: Facts On File Publications. 1999.

2. Dupuy, R. Ernest and Trevor N. Dupey. The Harper Encyclopedia of Military History: From 3500 B.C. to the Present New York, New York: Harper & Row. 1993.

1970- Nasser dies, and Vice-President Anwar al-Sadat becomes President of Egypt.

1973- War with Israel. The Yom Kippur/Ramadan War paves the way for eventual peace negotiations to take place.

1974-First Sinai Disengagement Agreement between Egypt an Israel. Israel pulled back from part of the Sinai. This agreement was, in effect, the first land-for-peace agreement between Israel and an Arab neighbor.

1977 (January)–Egyptian ‘Bread Riots’ against economic reforms. Nearly 80 deaths, and 800 wounded.

1977 (July)-Short border war with Libya.

1977 (November)-Sadat goes to Jerusalem and is the first Arab leader to visit Israel. Sadat spoke before the Knesset in Jerusalem about how to achieve a comprehensive peace between Israel and the Arab nations.

1978-Egypt and Israel sign the Camp David Accords. There were two accords, titled A Framework for Peace in the Middle East and A Framework for the Conclusion of a Peace Treaty between Egypt and Israel. The Accords set the stage for the 1979 peace treaty.

1979-Egypt and Israel sign the Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty, ending the state of war that had existed since 1948.

1979-Egypt is expelled from the Arab League for making peace with Israel.

1981-Assassination of President Sadat. Vice-President Hosni Mubarak assumes power.

1989-Egypt readmitted to the Arab League.

1991-War with Iraq. Egypt took part in the multi-national coalition that drove Iraqi forces from Kuwait in the Gulf War.

2011-Massive unrest takes place throughout Egypt with opposition groups calling for the ouster of President Mubarak.

Egypt History Portal page is at http://www.historyguy.com/egypt_history.htm

Italian Troops Fighting Turks in Libya 1911-1912

Italo-Turkish War of 1911-1912 now online at http://www.historyguy.com/italo_turkish_war.htm

The Italian Navy transported nearly 50,000 Army troops to the Libyan coast, where they quickly overcame light resistance and occupied the coastal cities. The Ottomans only had light forces on the ground, and were not able to put up an effective resistance. Due to the weakness of their navy, compared to the Italian naval forces, and the declared neutrality of Egypt (which was under British control), the Ottomans were not able to reinforce the defenders in North Africa. Because of this apparent weakness in the face of Italian aggression, the Ottoman government had to…(read more at http://www.historyguy.com/italo_turkish_war.htm)